Predicting 90 million wearable devices shipped in 2014

As demonstrated at CES 2014, wearables are *the* explosive industry sector.

Which is why the all market intelligence companies are frantically releasing their views of just how large the market can be.

The latest outfit to chance its arm is ABI Research, which reckons that 90 million wearable computing devices will be shipped in 2014.

The majority of this - it predicts - will be from healthcare and the sports and activity sectors - the latter driven by health-lite concerns about weight and obesity. ABI Research doesn't think devices such as Google Glass and smart watches like Pebble, while driving consumer interest, won't be commercially successful, however.

"The next twelve months will be a critical period for the acceptance and adoption of wearable devices," says ABI's senior analyst Joshua Flood.

"Healthcare and sports and activity trackers are rapidly becoming mass-market products. On the flipside, wearable devices like smart watches need to overcome some critical obstacles.

"Aesthetic design, more compelling use cases, battery life and lower price points are the main inhibitors."

I.e. wearable devices need to be nice to wear.

Other companies have based their view on the industry around its financial value. Back in 2013, Gartner says it would be worth $10 billion in 2016, while Juniper Research takes the view of $19 billion in 2018.

Skulpt and Atlas demonstrate the continued power of crowdfunding

There's been plenty of debate about the importance of crowdfunding sources such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo in certain sectors of the tech world.

As with many new opportunities, the first 12 months sees a free-for-all which eventually - after some crashes and burning - settles down to a sustainable business model for a small subset of the original potential audience.

Certainly that seems to be what's happened in late 2013 into 2014, where crowdfunding for games is now pretty much dead, while crowdfunding for wearable technology is still going strong. Maybe that's because wearable tech is the hot topic, but I also think that there's a better fit as with games all you really get/are offered is a virtual experience. With wearables, on the other hand, you can something to wear (maybe even on your other hand).

Long introduction, but it does lead me to point out that the Skulpt Aim device, which measures your muscle quality using an IQ-type system (average = 100) has completed its Indiegogo, raising $384,509 from a $150,000 original goal.

Skulpt took advantage of a lot of press following its CES 2014 appearance. It even made it to Newsnight on the BBC.

Another company looking to make a similar splash, also on Indiegogo is Atlas. Here the sell is harder as it's yet another bracelet sports tracker, albeit one with the marketing tag that it's the "first fitness tracker that actually tracks your workout".

Priced at $159, apparently it can even identify the exercises you're doing, counting reps, and evaluating your form - all thanks to its inertial sensors, which can track in the x, y and z-axis. I don't see why it's such an odd shape though, and I'll also be interested to see how accurate the heart rate monitor is compared to a proper chest strap.

Still, the company has already reached its $125,000 goal; with 18 days to go, it's currently over $162,000.

You can find out more from the Atlas website.

Why 6-24% is not a healthy range

I love data, but only data in the correct context.

There is nothing more stupid, or dangerous, than data in the wrong context.

And sadly - sadly because it makes excellent products - is the following from Fitbit.com

"What's body fat percentage?
Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%."

Of course, this information is roughly correct, but as ranges go 6-24% and 14-31 % are ridiculous.

For a company that makes personal fitness devices, maybe it should get a bit more personal when it comes to statistics.

What's body fat percentage?

Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%.

What's body fat percentage?

Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%.

What's body fat percentage?

Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%.

What's body fat percentage?

Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%.

What's body fat percentage?

Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%.

What's body fat percentage?

Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%.

What's body fat percentage?

Body fat is essential to maintaining good health. For most women, 14-31% is a healthy range. For guys, that range is closer to 6-24%.

I couldn't sleep wearing a Basis B1 fitness watch

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The only point of wearables is if you wear them.

Over the next decade, it seems likely to me that wearables will become invisible as they integrated within our homes, clothes, perhaps even our bodies.

The point is what they track is important. We won't want them to have screens on them. All that data will be crunched in the cloud and the important bits displayed on any personal screen we happen to use.

Long pre-amble to the incredibly-looking Basis B1 health tracker ($199)

It's a monster, which is fine if like the Nike and Adidas sports watches, you're using it to track activity. However, a core feature of the Basis is how it analyses your sleep.

Personally, I have enough problems wearing a Fitbit Flex to sleep and that's about the smallest, thinner tracker there is. Wearing a brick on your wrist isn't going to be conductive to good sleep, although one thing Basis has done correctly that you don't need to push any buttons to toggle between sleep/active mode.

I'd also be interested to see how accurate the heart rate tracker is compared to a proper chest strap, but that's another complaint for another time.

D.I.Y. Data: Two months of monitoring my vital signs

Two months ago, I started regularly tracking some of my biometrics using a blood pressure monitor.

It's a semi-serious attempt to see how my body is reacting to the stresses and strains of daily life, and something I'll be looking to continue into 2014.

And with that in mind, here are the first 50 days of the experiment.

I think it's difficult to see any clear trends. I try to take the readings at the same time in my day - at the start - but given my weird operating routine, that's certainly not the same time each day in terms of GMT.

Still, there is a clear downwards trend in systolic blood pressure, although that may partly be because I'm getting more used to taking my own blood pressure.

My diastolic pressure has remained more constant during the period, so the systolic-diastolic line has decreased thanks to the downward trend in systolic pressure. Weight and heartrate have remained steady. 

Pebble Steel is fool's gold

As I've always said, the issue with wearables isn't the technology or the features (although there has to be a minimum of these).

The issue is whether you actually want to wear them.

For me, the original Pebble watch was on the borderline of being wearable; slightly tacky and plastic-y, but at least it was colourful and toy-like

The new range of Pebble Steel watches - a pre-CES announcement - are truly horrible, however. Again, it's not the technology or features, it's just the look.

The Pebble is not a high-class piece of consumer electronics. It's an early adopter gadget. If I want a watch with a CNC milled steel case and Gorilla glass, I don't want a Pebble. Ugh!

Pebble Steel will be available, priced $249 from 29 January. 

Dumbing down the smart watch to the smart band with Haloband

Kickstarter seems to be the place for upstart wearable computing companies to launch.

The latest one is Chinese outfit Haloband, which describes itself as providing a way to control your smartphone with a simple wrist move.

Basically put it's a plastic band containing two NFC sensors. You use these to set up six actions via the Haloband's smartphone app.

Then you tap your phone on the sensors in sequence to trigger the action you want to perform, such as unlocking the device, launching the camera, music player etc.

As a device, it's a pretty simple one and hence is cheap at a mere $25. However, considering the complexity of new wearable devices this seems to be a backwards step, particularly when companies like Apple are likely to integrate such features directly in their devices.

For that reason, personally I think the market for standalone wearables requires more features, not less.

You can find out more via Kickstarter.

Hello new Fitbit Flex

Following the loss of my Fitbit One - great device, terrible wearable - I had to get another tracker.

I don't like the Nike+ FuelBand concept and my experience with Jawbone's Up wasn't great either. I didn't want to get another tracker that couldn't be easily worn either, so that was the Withings Pulse out.

So, with the more capable Fitbit Force not being available yet in the UK, I decided to go with the cheaper and less functional Fitbit Flex (£80/$100).

Interestingly, it's not an integrated bracelet as I originally thought, and the website suggests. Instead, it's a small hard pod (waterproof) which slips securely into a flexible rubber band worn around the wrist.

You only have to take the pod out of the band to charge it once a week. Syncing with the Fitbit website is automatic thanks to a dongle which plugs into a USB slot on your computer.

In terms of day-to-day use, the Flex is excellent if simple.

Of course, it doesn't have the screen of the One, so you can't see how many steps you've taken, or levels you've climbed on-device. By tapping it, it will show you how many steps you've taken in terms of the flashing of 5 small leds, each of which represents 2,000 steps.

If/when you reach 10,000 steps in a day, it flashes and vibrates.

The other key feature is the sleep mode, which you toggle on by tapping on the band for a couple of seconds until you see the end two leds light up. It's a similar process to reset to active mode. This process takes a bit of getting used to, but it's not rocket science.

So, in conclusion, while Fitbit Flex is the most simple of the wearable lifestyle trackers you can buy, that's it best feature. It's small, there's little messing around, you just wear it, and - if nothing else - every week you'll get an email detailing your activity and sleep totals. And if you want more information, you can log into the website for daily totals.

Certainly, I'd recommend it as an excellent place to test the market if you're interested in wearables.