Wednesday, 16 October 2013

Let's start tracking from the beginning...

I've always viewed predictions of market sector size to be worthless.

Even those analysts who do have a good grasp of market dynamics, and who do take a robust approach to generating decent current numbers, don't have a crystal ball.

On that basis maybe they can 'predict' how the market will change over the next couple of years, but anything more longterm than two years is clearly beyond the accuracy of the currently available information.

That means even the best analysts are guessing. And that's why the only reason predictions of market sector size are interesting is in retrospect - basically to see how wrong our assumptions were.

On that basis, according to the BBC, these are some of the market predictions for the future size of the wearable technology market.

Juniper Research: $1.4 billion in 2013. $19 billion in 2018.

Gartner: $10 billion in 2016.

Credit Suisse: $50 billion in 2018.

As for my view, I think it depends on whether wearable technology remains a consumer market - mainly for sports fans who want to track their performance - or whether it breaks out hard into general medical practice.

In the case of the latter, $50 billion is the ballpark by 2018. In the case of the former, it's $10 billion.

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